Champion Hurdle Predictions: SuperComputer's Forecast for Top 3 Finishers

Champion Hurdle Predictions: SuperComputer's Forecast for Top 3 Finishers

The Cheltenham Festival gets under way on Tuesday and all eyes will be on the first day's feature race - the Champion Hurdle. Constitution Hill is the hot favourite in the race as he bids to reclaim the title he won two years ago. He galloped up the hill to beat State Man back in 2023 and is currently an 8/13 shot to repeat the dose in 2025. But there are some worthy adversaries once again. State Man - who won the race last year - is back again and is currently 11/1, but the mare Brighterdaysahead is expected to throw down the main challenge. The Gordon Elliott trained horse is 9/4 with most bookmakers.

Forecast by the SuperComputer

Ahead of the highly anticipated showdown on Tuesday (4pm), the Irish Racing SuperComputer has crunched the numbers to forecast the likely outcome of the Grade 1 event. The data-driven analysis gives Constitution Hill the highest probability of victory at 54.6%, reaffirming Nicky Henderson’s charge to claim back the title from State Man, who romped home last year. Constitution Hill– 54.6% chance of victory, Brighterdaysahead– 30.2% chance of victory, State Man– 10.3% chance of victory, Burdett Road– 2.7% chance of victory, Winter Fog- 1.4% chance of victory. While Constitution Hill leads the charge, strong contenders such as Brighterdaysahead (30.2%) and State Man (10.3%) are expected to push for a podium finish. Brighterdaysahead, with a 30% probability of winning the race, is seen as the primary threat, while Lossiemouth’s well-rounded profile makes it a key contender for the places.

Final Thoughts

A spokesperson for Irish Racing said: “The Champion Hurdle remains one of the most anticipated races of the festival, second only to the Cheltenham Gold Cup in prestige. With bookmakers offering enticing Cheltenham free bets and promotions, excitement is set to reach fever pitch as the best hurdlers in the sport go head-to-head for the ultimate prize. Can Constitution Hill cement his place among the greats with another dominant display, or will an emerging challenger seize the crown? Racing fans won’t want to miss this thrilling battle for Champion Hurdle supremacy.” The SuperComputer is a probability model, not determined by human predictions or bias. What happens is the SuperComputer estimates the outcome of the race based on a horse’s current strength (based on factors such as conditions, weight, jockey, trainer and form) and betting market odds. The machine then simulates the remaining games in a season 1,000 times and constructs an average league table from the 1,000 simulations, to rule out anomalous results.